Cannabis Voters Urged to Mobilize Ahead of November Ballot Measures

The Turnout Gap That Could Decide Three States

Cannabis supporters historically vote at lower rates than opponents, a gap that's cost legalization campaigns wins in conservative-leaning states. In South Dakota's 2022 adult-use measure, turnout among voters aged 18-34—the demographic most likely to support legalization—lagged 11 percentage points behind the statewide average, according to post-election analysis by the Secretary of State's office. The measure failed by 6 points.

This year, Florida's Amendment 3, North Dakota's Initiated Measure 5, and South Dakota's Initiated Measure 29 are all polling within the margin of error. Florida requires 60 percent approval to pass. North Dakota and South Dakota need simple majorities. Early voter registration data shows younger voters—who skew pro-legalization—are registering at rates 8-12 percent below 2024 levels in all three states.

"We can't win if our people don't show up," said Matthew Schweich, deputy director of the Marijuana Policy Project, which is backing campaigns in all three states. "The math is brutal."

Florida's 60-Percent Threshold Looms Large

Florida's Amendment 3 is polling at 58 percent support, just shy of the 60-percent supermajority required to amend the state constitution. The measure, backed by Trulieve and other multi-state operators, would legalize adult-use sales and home cultivation. Opponents, led by the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Governor Ron DeSantis, have outspent proponents $14 million to $11 million in the past six weeks, according to state campaign finance filings.

Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers told a Tampa business forum last week that the company's redirecting $2 million into voter-contact operations in the final 40 days. "We need every single person who's ever bought a vape pen to vote," Rivers said, according to a recording obtained by CannIntel.

The 60-percent bar has killed cannabis measures before. In 2014, Florida's first adult-use attempt won 58 percent but failed to clear the threshold.

North Dakota and South Dakota Face Déjà Vu

North Dakota voters have rejected legalization three times since 2018; South Dakota twice. Both states' 2026 measures are narrowly written to address past objections—no home grow in North Dakota, stricter DUI provisions in South Dakota—but polling remains tight. A September survey by the University of North Dakota showed Measure 5 at 51 percent support with 12 percent undecided.

"The undecideds break against us every time," said Paulette Thorson, chair of New Approach South Dakota, the campaign backing Measure 29. "We have to turn out people who already said yes."

Both campaigns are deploying text-banking and door-knocking operations targeting voters who supported past measures but didn't vote in the 2024 midterms. In South Dakota, that pool's estimated at 47,000 voters—more than double the 2022 defeat margin.

Why Cannabis Voters Sit Out Midterms

Political scientists attribute the turnout gap to age and issue-salience asymmetry. Younger voters, who overwhelmingly support legalization, vote at lower rates in midterm and off-year elections, while older voters—who skew conservative on cannabis—turn out reliably, creating a predictable disadvantage for legalization campaigns that depends less on persuasion than on raw mobilization capacity.

The people who care most about keeping cannabis illegal show up every time. The people who want it legal assume it's inevitable and stay home.

That dynamic has flipped outcomes in red and purple states. In Arkansas's 2022 adult-use measure, turnout among voters under 30 was 19 percent, compared to 48 percent among voters over 65. The measure lost 56-44.

For full background on this story, see the CannIntel topic hub on Cannabis Voter Engagement.

The Operator Stake: Millions in Revenue on the Line

Multi-state operators have poured $38 million into the three campaigns, with Florida accounting for $29 million of that total. Trulieve, Curaleaf, and Verano each contributed seven-figure sums to the Florida effort, according to state filings. If Amendment 3 passes, analysts project Florida's adult-use market could generate $2 billion in annual sales by 2028, making it the third-largest legal market in the U.S. behind California and New York.

The revenue stakes are smaller in North Dakota and South Dakota but still significant for regional operators. A win in either state would open markets projected at $150-200 million annually within three years, according to cannabis research firm BDSA.

What to Watch in the Final 40 Days

Campaigns in all three states are shifting resources from persuasion to turnout. Florida's Smart & Safe campaign is launching a $3 million digital ad buy targeting registered Democrats and independents under 40 who voted in 2024 but skipped the 2022 midterms. North Dakota's New Economic Frontier is deploying field staff to college campuses in Grand Forks and Fargo.

Early voting begins October 21 in Florida, October 28 in North Dakota, and October 24 in South Dakota. Campaigns are treating the first week of early voting as a bellwether. If turnout among under-35 voters lags in that window, organizers say they'll know they're in trouble.

The next signal: early-vote data from county clerks, due November 1. If the turnout gap persists, advocates may be looking at another round of narrow defeats and another cycle of asking why their voters stayed home.