Federal Marijuana Tax Could Raise $57.9 Billion, New Study Finds

Revenue Projection Assumes Federal Excise Tax Structure

The $57.9 billion figure assumes Congress enacts a federal excise tax on cannabis sales similar to the structures applied to alcohol and tobacco. The Bloomberg Tax model didn't specify an exact tax rate but appears to draw on historical proposals including the Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act, which proposed a federal excise tax starting at 10 percent of sale price in year one, escalating to 25 percent by year five.

The projection covers fiscal years 2027 through 2036. It assumes marijuana remains a controlled substance under the Controlled Substances Act during the budget window, but that Congress separately authorizes a legal commercial market subject to federal taxation.

Study Doesn't Account for Schedule III Scenario

The revenue estimate doesn't model the tax implications of DEA's pending proposal to reschedule cannabis to Schedule III under 21 U.S.C. § 812. Under Schedule III, state-licensed cannabis businesses would regain access to standard business deductions under 26 U.S.C. § 280E. No new federal excise tax would attach unless Congress enacts separate legislation.

DEA's rescheduling notice of proposed rulemaking, published May 21, 2024, remains under administrative review with no final rule issued. The agency hasn't announced a timeline for conclusion of the NPRM comment period or issuance of a final rule.

Congressional Tax Proposals Remain Stalled

No federal cannabis tax bill has advanced past committee in the 119th Congress. Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden and House Ways and Means ranking member Richard Neal have circulated draft language for a federal marijuana excise tax tied to THC content, but neither chamber has scheduled markup.

CBO hasn't published an official score of any pending cannabis tax proposal. The Bloomberg Tax figure represents an independent research estimate, not a CBO baseline projection.

State Tax Collections Provide Revenue Baseline

State-level cannabis tax collections totaled approximately $3.77 billion in calendar year 2025 across 24 adult-use markets, according to data compiled by the Marijuana Policy Project. California led with $1.29 billion. Washington followed at $512 million, Colorado at $423 million.

The Bloomberg Tax model likely extrapolates from state revenue data, adjusting for the broader tax base a federal regime would capture, including interstate commerce currently prohibited under state programs. The study didn't disclose its methodology or underlying assumptions in the public summary.

280E Repeal Would Reduce Effective Tax Burden

Rescheduling to Schedule III would eliminate the 26 U.S.C. § 280E disallowance of business deductions for cannabis operators, reducing their effective federal tax rate by an estimated 40 to 70 percent depending on cost structure. That reduction would lower federal income tax receipts from the industry, offsetting any new excise tax revenue unless Congress sets rates high enough to compensate.

The National Cannabis Industry Association estimated in 2025 testimony that 280E costs the industry $1.8 billion annually in disallowed deductions. Treasury hasn't published an official estimate of 280E-related revenue.

What Comes Next

A broader reconciliation package or tax reform bill in 2027 is the likeliest vehicle for a federal cannabis tax. Senate Finance and House Ways and Means haven't indicated whether cannabis tax provisions will be included in upcoming markup sessions.

For full background on federal cannabis tax policy, see the CannIntel topic hub on federal cannabis taxation. DEA's final rule on rescheduling, if issued, wouldn't itself impose a new excise tax but would trigger the 280E repeal, reshaping the revenue equation Congress must model.