Cannabis Stocks Rally in June 2026 as Policy Momentum Builds

MSO Equities Lead June Rally

The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) gained 11.2% in the five trading days ending June 6, 2026, marking the index's best weekly close since October 2025. Curaleaf Holdings and Trulieve Cannabis both posted gains exceeding 15% during the period. Green Thumb Industries advanced 12.8%. Trading volume across the top ten MSOs by market cap increased 47% week-over-week, according to data compiled from public filings.

The performance reverses a prolonged downturn that saw the MSOS ETF decline 23% between January and May 2026. The June rally represents a technical breakout above the 50-day moving average for the first time since March — a threshold traders watch closely for momentum confirmation.

Federal Rescheduling Timeline Drives Sentiment Shift

Market participants cite renewed optimism around the DEA's Schedule III rescheduling timeline as the primary catalyst for the equity rally. On June 3, 2026, the Drug Enforcement Administration confirmed that the final rescheduling rule remains on track for publication in the Federal Register by August 2026, according to a statement from DEA Administrator Anne Milgram. That timeline would trigger IRC §280E relief for cannabis operators beginning in tax year 2027.

The stakes are substantial. The 280E deduction prohibition currently costs MSOs an estimated $1.8 billion annually in excess federal tax liability. Rescheduling to Schedule III would permit ordinary business expense deductions under IRC §162, effectively reducing the federal effective tax rate for profitable operators from approximately 70% to 21-28%. For a detailed breakdown of how rescheduling affects operator cash flow, see the CannIntel topic hub on Cannabis Stock Market 2026.

Q2 Earnings Guidance Exceeds Consensus

Several tier-one MSOs issued upward Q2 2026 revenue guidance during the first week of June, providing fundamental support for the equity rally. Curaleaf Holdings raised its Q2 revenue forecast to $345-$355 million on June 4, up from prior guidance of $330-$340 million. Green Thumb Industries similarly increased its Q2 EBITDA projection to $125-$130 million, a 6% upward revision.

The guidance revisions reflect stronger-than-expected same-store sales growth in key markets including Florida, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. Florida's adult-use ballot initiative polling shows 62% voter support in early June surveys, driving speculative inventory builds and accelerated license acquisitions in the state. Trulieve Cannabis operates 131 of Florida's 642 active dispensaries as of June 2026.